Tuesday, July 16, 2013

I'd like to Thank Bayes Theorem.

Back in 2011 I wrote:

If a woman is murdered, it's really odd to think that being married to her is pretty good evidence that you killed her without any other considerations. Because most of the time the husband is the guilty party. Likewise though there appears to be no evidence to suggest that Lance Armstrong cheated in order to win the Tour d' France seven times, there's actually really good evidence. Competitive bicycling due to distance traveled gives huge advantages to anybody who cheats. And the fact that Lance Armstrong won seven times, is good evidence that he cheated without any other considerations. In fact, if anybody wins the Tour d' France that is strong evidence that they cheated, so good in fact, that one could be justified in believing they cheated on that point alone.

This was before the whole Lance Armstrong fallout was even a whisper on the wind. I came to the conclusion he cheated simply by understanding Bayes even when there was no traditional evidence against him.

No comments: