Clinton Wins! -- Should probably give up now.

After the VOTR (Vermont, Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island) primaries/caucaprimary Clinton won both large states Ohio and Texas which she needed to continue. Thus far it looks like she won a net gain of 2 delegates. This is the same difference is exactly winning New Mexico or my district (CA-43) breaking 3-1 in favor of her rather than 2-2 as any normal even district would.

Starting the night down 159 delegates (pledged total) she finishes up 157 delegates down. And a third of the way closer to the end. To put this in Texas Holdem analogy because I've decided to do that and this isn't your blog...

The season started with Obama having Pocket Deuces vs. Ace King (11:10 in favor of Obama). We'll call this the flop... no help to anybody. This is a massive help to Obama. No hand improved, but, the odds are much better and much more in his favor even after these "losses". There's only so many cards coming and she needs to hit somewhere. The odds may have started out pretty much as a coin flip but they aren't good at this point.

Prediction for Primary on Tuesday

Obama wins Texas and Ohio. And somehow, let's suggest magic, he wins even more delegates than Clinton does. She drops out of the race after a large number of superdelegates began a rush to Obama just to put the race away and start focusing on the general.

California: Home district voting totals.

The people (how very distant they seem) in my family actually live an Even district. So it would take a lot to force a 3-1 split. And, frankly, it happened. 3-1 in favor of Clinton. Arg. Clinton took my district at a 2.025 to 1 margin. That .025 there means a difference of two delegates (One from Obama, One for Clinton).

Update: Wait, those were older numbers. Late breaking votes for Obama according to raw vote totals: 1.84 to 1. Means a two/two split. The 33.7% of the Obama supporters in this area succeeded. With 100% of votes in. What a difference between 63.2/31.2 and 62.1/33.7!

Woo... go 43rd congressional district.

THE FIGHTING 43rd!

Update: Never Mind. The math is more arcane than that. 62.1/(62.1+33.7)>.62! Hillary actually does snag 3-1 rather than 2-2.

Boo... go fuck yourself 43rd congressional district.

THE FRIGGING 43rd!

My Super Tuesday Prediction...

My prediction for Super Tuesday Obama +80 on delegate count.

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God Snot, teetering on the edge, switches to Obama.

Well, now that John Edwards has dropped out of the race, I'm supporting Obama without the nagging feeling of betrayal. I, like many people, was torn between Obama and Edwards. Initially I supported Edwards because he spoke to a lot of the core values I endorse. He wanted to get rid of the lobbyists and reform those things you can't reform because of the lobbyists and also because he was white. Not that there's anything wrong with race, but I was worried that racists would keep Obama down. A good section of this country is downright unacceptably hatefilled and I thought this race was too important to avoid the same charismatic, southern, Christian, white, male mold that has served this country well since the founding fathers stopped getting elected (mostly deist). However, I was ready to jump ship after South Carolina. Specifically for the reason I didn't want Clinton. I think the Hillary Clinton lacks coattails. There's honestly close to two decades of built in hate. And even people who stand no chance of voting this their state blue (electoral votes are such that if you live in Illinois or California, there's basically no point voting; you should always vote). However if they drive out to vote against Hillary, a number of other pivotal candidates will lose. There are opportunities to make large strides in the Senate and some strides in the House but mostly if democratic voters vote and to an extent if Republicans don't (addendum: if you're a Republican go ahead and ignore the always vote advice). Well, Obama drove out so many voters in SC and young voters in Iowa that I was tempted to switch based on the fact that he could win in a landslide and drive a vast number of voters to the polls who might not have gone otherwise the the voting booths as Democrats.

With Edwards out of the race. Obama has it pretty well sewed up. That and the coattails issue. I have a choice now between negative coattails and positive coattails. Also Hillary is pretty right wing. Her position against video games may put her heavily loved by mothers, but not so heavily on the other side of me. Also, I view her as an establishment figure.

I was ready to jump ship and now I will. I hope Obama will choose Edwards as VP. Hillary could be secretary of state, Dean the surgeon general. It could be one happy family. And we could replace everybody incompetent with competent people. Ah, competence!

Why does Obama get to declare delegate victory in Nevada but not in NH?

Final NH breakdown:

* Hillary Clinton has won 9 New Hampshire delegates (3 statewide, 6 district-level)

* Barack Obama has won 9 New Hampshire delegates (3 statewide, 6 district-level)

* John Edwards has won 4 New Hampshire delegates (2 statewide, 2 district-level)

* 22 Democratic delegates were at stake in the New Hampshire primary

* There are also 8 Democratic “superdelegates” in New Hampshire. Of those, 2 support Clinton and 3 support Obama, according to a CNN survey.

That looks remarkably like Obama gets 9 delegates vs 9 delegates and 3 superdelegates vs 2. So Obama gets 12 to Hillary's 11?

Silly system.

I called it!

Mental note: Edit post claiming John Edwards would win the caucus.

I knew Obama would win the Iowa Caucus!