Is Hillary the stronger candidate?

The three swing states she does better in are Ohio, Penn, and Florida. It's harder to find states with bigger totals in play. electoral-vote.com has Clinton swimming in electoral votes and Obama simply winning a pretty hearty amount. The general election map shows her winning more than a few states not generally known for being swing states. Honestly the map looks like (Bill) Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign win margin (states for states). It's as if the (Bill) Clinton supporters in those states are (Hillary) Clinton supporters.

She's lost the nomination and Obama is pretty set to win the general election. However, I'm not sure there isn't some merit to the argument that she would win by a larger margin. As much as I am a fan of the Clinton's from my youth, I really do want some outside blood with some real hope and hopefully down-ticket coat tails.

Though the state polling seems to indicate she'd win in the 340s whereas Obama wins at about 290. Not only does she crush Obama in the Appalachia regions but she appears to have enough crossover appeal in the polling to win a number of those states in the general election just as her husband did in 1996.

I'm not supporting her by any extent, but looking at the current snapshot of the polls she is doing better. I don't really think that polls prior to the full-fledged start of the general election are indicative of what will happen in the general election but unlike most of the crap she pulls out of her ass there is a bit of truth to the argument. It's a moot point as she's already lost the nomination. Further, I think the link between saying that a current snapshot of the polls shows her doing better vs. "the stronger candidate" is not a very well established one. If it were really true, she wouldn't have epic failed during the primaries (insert Mark Penn diatribe). Obama seriously ran a better campaign and generally that's a pretty good metric for determining the stronger candidate.

Both Clinton and Obama would defeat McCain, so by proxy this stands as more of a general election battle much like some of the districts where the Democrat will win and the primary is effectively the election. I think this is how she sees it and asking her to quit as such just seems a bit silly regardless how slim her chances.

That said, I hope she drops out really soon. She can't win and I'd prefer to move on to the next part and get those Clinton supporters behind Obama as soon as possible.

California: Home district voting totals.

The people (how very distant they seem) in my family actually live an Even district. So it would take a lot to force a 3-1 split. And, frankly, it happened. 3-1 in favor of Clinton. Arg. Clinton took my district at a 2.025 to 1 margin. That .025 there means a difference of two delegates (One from Obama, One for Clinton).

Update: Wait, those were older numbers. Late breaking votes for Obama according to raw vote totals: 1.84 to 1. Means a two/two split. The 33.7% of the Obama supporters in this area succeeded. With 100% of votes in. What a difference between 63.2/31.2 and 62.1/33.7!

Woo... go 43rd congressional district.

THE FIGHTING 43rd!

Update: Never Mind. The math is more arcane than that. 62.1/(62.1+33.7)>.62! Hillary actually does snag 3-1 rather than 2-2.

Boo... go fuck yourself 43rd congressional district.

THE FRIGGING 43rd!

God Snot, teetering on the edge, switches to Obama.

Well, now that John Edwards has dropped out of the race, I'm supporting Obama without the nagging feeling of betrayal. I, like many people, was torn between Obama and Edwards. Initially I supported Edwards because he spoke to a lot of the core values I endorse. He wanted to get rid of the lobbyists and reform those things you can't reform because of the lobbyists and also because he was white. Not that there's anything wrong with race, but I was worried that racists would keep Obama down. A good section of this country is downright unacceptably hatefilled and I thought this race was too important to avoid the same charismatic, southern, Christian, white, male mold that has served this country well since the founding fathers stopped getting elected (mostly deist). However, I was ready to jump ship after South Carolina. Specifically for the reason I didn't want Clinton. I think the Hillary Clinton lacks coattails. There's honestly close to two decades of built in hate. And even people who stand no chance of voting this their state blue (electoral votes are such that if you live in Illinois or California, there's basically no point voting; you should always vote). However if they drive out to vote against Hillary, a number of other pivotal candidates will lose. There are opportunities to make large strides in the Senate and some strides in the House but mostly if democratic voters vote and to an extent if Republicans don't (addendum: if you're a Republican go ahead and ignore the always vote advice). Well, Obama drove out so many voters in SC and young voters in Iowa that I was tempted to switch based on the fact that he could win in a landslide and drive a vast number of voters to the polls who might not have gone otherwise the the voting booths as Democrats.

With Edwards out of the race. Obama has it pretty well sewed up. That and the coattails issue. I have a choice now between negative coattails and positive coattails. Also Hillary is pretty right wing. Her position against video games may put her heavily loved by mothers, but not so heavily on the other side of me. Also, I view her as an establishment figure.

I was ready to jump ship and now I will. I hope Obama will choose Edwards as VP. Hillary could be secretary of state, Dean the surgeon general. It could be one happy family. And we could replace everybody incompetent with competent people. Ah, competence!

Why does Obama get to declare delegate victory in Nevada but not in NH?

Final NH breakdown:

* Hillary Clinton has won 9 New Hampshire delegates (3 statewide, 6 district-level)

* Barack Obama has won 9 New Hampshire delegates (3 statewide, 6 district-level)

* John Edwards has won 4 New Hampshire delegates (2 statewide, 2 district-level)

* 22 Democratic delegates were at stake in the New Hampshire primary

* There are also 8 Democratic “superdelegates” in New Hampshire. Of those, 2 support Clinton and 3 support Obama, according to a CNN survey.

That looks remarkably like Obama gets 9 delegates vs 9 delegates and 3 superdelegates vs 2. So Obama gets 12 to Hillary's 11?

Silly system.

Soft number in NH / Endorsement

Everybody has a theory as to why Hillary won the NH primary my guess is that it has a lot to do with liking most people running on the Democratic side.

The Republican numbers were pretty straightforward because sometimes you hate one a bit less than less than the others, and the hate doesn't switch as easily as mild preference. Though I support Edwards, the field isn't that bad, I won't be mourning the eventual nominee. I actually like all three of the top folks. Though, I do rank them Edwards, Obama, Hillary as Hillary isn't liberal enough, doesn't have many coattails, and I'd just really love Edwards style reform.

Though, might as well make it official myself and Godsnot (this blog, of which I'm the only blogger) are hereby endorsing:

John Edwards for the Democratic nomination.

Previous I did endorse Alan Keyes for the Republican nomination. I think insuring a loss for the Republican party would be a more productive use of Keyes time than ranting about Cheney's lesbian daughter while ignoring his own lesbian daughter.

John Edwards will win the nomination. This prediction brought to you by Is-From-An-Ought Inc.

Hillary? NH?

Hm. I hope she doesn't win. I'd prefer a bit more of a liberal, more a shoe in, and with larger coattails... Edwards.

Driving up voting against her in areas that make a difference in her race but would in other races is a worry. That and I'd prefer some fresh blood.