Sunday, June 1, 2008
Is Hillary the stronger candidate?
The three swing states she does better in are Ohio, Penn, and Florida. It's harder to find states with bigger totals in play. electoral-vote.com has Clinton swimming in electoral votes and Obama simply winning a pretty hearty amount. The general election map shows her winning more than a few states not generally known for being swing states. Honestly the map looks like (Bill) Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign win margin (states for states). It's as if the (Bill) Clinton supporters in those states are (Hillary) Clinton supporters.
She's lost the nomination and Obama is pretty set to win the general election. However, I'm not sure there isn't some merit to the argument that she would win by a larger margin. As much as I am a fan of the Clinton's from my youth, I really do want some outside blood with some real hope and hopefully down-ticket coat tails.
Though the state polling seems to indicate she'd win in the 340s whereas Obama wins at about 290. Not only does she crush Obama in the Appalachia regions but she appears to have enough crossover appeal in the polling to win a number of those states in the general election just as her husband did in 1996.
I'm not supporting her by any extent, but looking at the current snapshot of the polls she is doing better. I don't really think that polls prior to the full-fledged start of the general election are indicative of what will happen in the general election but unlike most of the crap she pulls out of her ass there is a bit of truth to the argument. It's a moot point as she's already lost the nomination. Further, I think the link between saying that a current snapshot of the polls shows her doing better vs. "the stronger candidate" is not a very well established one. If it were really true, she wouldn't have epic failed during the primaries (insert Mark Penn diatribe). Obama seriously ran a better campaign and generally that's a pretty good metric for determining the stronger candidate.
Both Clinton and Obama would defeat McCain, so by proxy this stands as more of a general election battle much like some of the districts where the Democrat will win and the primary is effectively the election. I think this is how she sees it and asking her to quit as such just seems a bit silly regardless how slim her chances.
That said, I hope she drops out really soon. She can't win and I'd prefer to move on to the next part and get those Clinton supporters behind Obama as soon as possible.